Fancy Pants
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.09
12.99 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $8.27 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.28%
15.2K openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.40% – 102.15%, 15,163 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedmalakasohn$9.0912.99 coins$2.223.17 coins0.24x
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedmalakasohn$9.0912.99 coins$7.2710.39 coins0.80x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $9.09 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.09 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.19 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $9.20 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.21 | 90.90% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.4%epic 0.1%classified 14.6%restricted 60.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit $512 (55.71x)