Forcefield
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.58
15.12 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $9.62 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.08%
8,264 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,270 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $963 1,376 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $197 281 coins | 5.1% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× |
| AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 80 | $77.00 110 coins | 10.0% | 107 | 103.4 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $43.88 62.69 coins | 41.1% | 769 | 744.3 | 1.03× |
| SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $29.15 41.65 coins | 27.3% | 731 | 744.3 | 0.98× |
| MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.5% | $14.16 20.23 coins | 15.4% | 838 | 867.5 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 2,511 | 2481.0 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,582 | 1654.0 | 0.96× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,709 | 1654.0 | 1.03× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$10.6015.14 coins$9851,407 coins92.93x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.58 | 90.89% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.58 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.59 | 90.92% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.60 | 90.90% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%classified 19.7%mil spec 9.0%consumer 70.0%best hit $985 (92.93x)