Fresh

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$127.69

182 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $116.09 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

119.88%

37 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

37 openings · below min

30 days

37 openings · below min

since tracking started

37 openings · below min

-0.5%76.3%153.0%

Small sample. 37 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	73.09%±78.5	—	odds
7d	37	119.88%±32.2	—	odds
30d	37	119.88%±32.2	—	odds
All	37	119.88%±32.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 870	$1,241 1,773 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$957 1,367 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,176	$566 808 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$551 787 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 500	$467 667 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$445 636 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$402 574 coins	41.5%	9	4.4	2.03×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$355 507 coins	3.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$291 415 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$179 256 coins	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 80	$168 240 coins	1.8%	0	0.5	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 286	$148 211 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 40	$133 190 coins	2.9%	2	0.9	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$132 189 coins	8.0%	3	2.6	1.16×
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 56	$118 168 coins	1.8%	0	0.7	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$93.10 133 coins	4.0%	2	1.8	1.08×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 43	$88.90 127 coins	1.8%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	23.2%	$70.70 101 coins	14.2%	8	8.6	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	15.0%	$65.46 93.51 coins	8.5%	2	5.5	0.36×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$52.65 75.22 coins	1.8%	4	1.5	2.70×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 31	$37.39 53.42 coins	1.0%	1	1.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$25.70 36.72 coins	4.4%	5	7.4	0.68×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.