Funfair

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$62.24

88.91 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $56.58 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.23%

88 openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

54 openings · below min

30 days

88 openings · below min

since tracking started

88 openings · below min

-0.5%132.3%265.0%

Small sample. 88 openings and 8.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	40.83%±223.6	—	odds
7d	54	66.17%±61.8	—	odds
30d	88	69.23%±48.5	—	odds
All	88	69.23%±48.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100,000	$6,657 9,510 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20,000	$6,003 8,575 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$5,684 8,120 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,809 2,585 coins	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$1,600 2,285 coins	2.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert	1 in 667	$1,054 1,505 coins	2.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 400	$899 1,285 coins	4.0%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$883 1,261 coins	4.7%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$827 1,182 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$760 1,086 coins	2.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 286	$555 793 coins	3.4%	0	0.3	—
ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base	1 in 200	$365 522 coins	3.2%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$263 375 coins	4.2%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$218 311 coins	4.6%	2	1.1	1.89×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$204 292 coins	2.5%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$134 192 coins	5.9%	2	2.2	0.91×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 53	$99.40 142 coins	3.3%	1	1.7	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$81.90 117 coins	6.5%	5	4.0	1.26×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 67	$77.70 111 coins	2.1%	1	1.3	0.76×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$39.24 56.06 coins	5.5%	8	7.0	1.14×
P250 \| Digital Architect (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$37.61 53.73 coins	12.0%	17	15.8	1.07×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$35.33 50.47 coins	3.1%	2	4.4	0.45×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$34.79 49.7 coins	7.4%	11	10.6	1.04×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$33.53 47.9 coins	4.1%	6	6.2	0.97×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	19.7%	$19.03 27.19 coins	6.6%	18	17.3	1.04×
Souvenir AUG \| Condemned (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	15.0%	$7.38 10.54 coins	2.0%	13	13.2	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Digital Architect (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$62.2488.91 coins$37.6153.73 coins0.60x20h

Souvenir AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$62.2488.91 coins$7.3810.54 coins0.12x20h

AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$62.2488.91 coins$19.0327.19 coins0.31x20h

P250 | Digital Architect (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictednorth gang$62.2488.91 coins$37.6153.73 coins0.60x20h

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$62.2488.91 coins$35.3350.47 coins0.57x1d

AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$62.2488.91 coins$19.0327.19 coins0.31x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$62.2488.91 coins$77.70111 coins1.25x1d

Souvenir AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrialBeastafiedBeast$62.2488.91 coins$7.3810.54 coins0.12x1d

Souvenir AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$62.2488.91 coins$7.3810.54 coins0.12x1d

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$62.2488.91 coins$81.90117 coins1.32x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$62.24	90.91%	26
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$61.76	90.90%	26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$62.39	90.91%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.1%legendary 0.0%base 0.5%extraordinary 12.7%classified 26.7%restricted 18.0%industrial 15.0%best hit —