Glacier
A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.65
3.78 coins
Advertised RTP
90.98%
EV $2.41 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.77%
34.7K openings, odds method
Variance
13.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$2.653.78 coins$7.3110.44 coins2.76x
Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrialVobbe$2.653.78 coins$3.344.77 coins1.26x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Red Tire (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$2.653.78 coins$1.381.97 coins0.52x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Red Tire (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrialBreezy™$2.653.78 coins$1.381.97 coins0.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.65 | 90.98% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $2.65 | 90.80% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.64 | 90.98% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.64 | 90.86% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.58 | 90.96% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.58 | 90.81% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.58 | 90.88% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $2.57 | 90.97% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.57 | 91.03% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $2.58 | 91.03% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.58 | 90.92% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 75.0%light blue 25.0%best hit $135 (51.06x)