Global

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$20.04

28.63 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $18.22 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.84%

1,162 openings, odds method

Variance

4.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.28%±30.82169 openings

7 days

83.08%±12.351,042 openings

30 days

82.84%±11.691,162 openings

since tracking started

82.84%±11.691,162 openings

63.0%94.2%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	169	94.28%±30.8	+0.2σ	odds
7d	1,042	83.08%±12.4	−1.2σ	odds
30d	1,162	82.84%±11.7	−1.4σ	odds
All	1,162	82.84%±11.7	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,162 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$692 989 coins	3.8%	1	1.2	0.86×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 250	$331 473 coins	7.3%	3	4.6	0.65×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$183 261 coins	5.0%	2	5.8	0.34×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$158 226 coins	4.3%	6	5.8	1.03×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$112 160 coins	18.4%	36	34.9	1.03×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$78.40 112 coins	21.5%	51	58.1	0.88×
Sticker \| Cloud9 G2A \| Katowice 2015sticker · high	1 in 14	$27.87 39.82 coins	10.7%	71	81.3	0.87×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$23.79 33.99 coins	6.5%	53	58.1	0.91×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	10.0%	$12.05 17.21 coins	6.6%	127	116.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$11.10 15.86 coins	6.1%	126	116.2	1.08×
Sticker \| yuurih (Gold) \| Berlin 2019sticker · extraordinary	10.0%	$5.26 7.51 coins	2.9%	119	116.2	1.02×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	13.5%	$4.40 6.28 coins	3.3%	161	156.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$3.39 4.84 coins	1.9%	119	116.2	1.02×
Sticker \| NiKo \| Katowice 2019sticker · high	10.0%	$2.97 4.25 coins	1.6%	106	116.2	0.91×
R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$0.06 0.08 coins	0.0%	181	174.3	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl$20.2028.86 coins$692989 coins34.27x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$20.0428.63 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x11m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$20.0428.63 coins$3.394.84 coins0.17x11m

MP9 | Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedJompen♿$20.0428.63 coins$4.406.28 coins0.22x11m

R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$20.0428.63 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x23m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$20.0428.63 coins$3.394.84 coins0.17x23m

AWP | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified$20.0428.63 coins$112160 coins5.59x23m

Sticker | Cloud9 G2A | Katowice 2015sticker · high$20.0428.63 coins$27.8739.82 coins1.39x23m

M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertFybzen$20.0428.63 coins$78.40112 coins3.91x23m

Sticker | NiKo | Katowice 2019sticker · high$20.0428.63 coins$2.974.25 coins0.15x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$20.04	90.92%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$20.18	90.92%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$20.20	90.90%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%remarkable 0.4%covert 6.0%classified 18.0%high 17.0%restricted 33.5%extraordinary 10.0%industrial 15.0%best hit $692 (34.27x)