Golden Hatch

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.32

23.32 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $14.84 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.51%

7,702 openings, odds method

Variance

39.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 125

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

50.69%±38.87998 openings

7 days

85.10%±15.496,259 openings

30 days

83.51%±13.967,702 openings

since tracking started

83.51%±13.967,702 openings

11.0%56.0%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	998	50.69%±38.9	−2.0σ	odds
7d	6,259	85.10%±15.5	−0.7σ	odds
30d	7,702	83.51%±14.0	−1.0σ	odds
All	7,702	83.51%±14.0	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,702 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,949 2,785 coins	1.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,761 2,515 coins	4.7%	3	3.1	0.97×
Sticker \| kennyS (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,411 2,015 coins	4.8%	4	3.9	1.04×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,288 1,840 coins	17.4%	18	15.4	1.17×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1,042 1,489 coins	14.0%	10	15.4	0.65×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,018 1,454 coins	6.9%	4	7.7	0.52×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$508 726 coins	6.8%	11	15.4	0.71×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$230 328 coins	7.7%	44	38.5	1.14×
Sticker \| innocent (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 200	$214 305 coins	7.2%	47	38.5	1.22×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$170 243 coins	13.8%	84	92.4	0.91×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$134 192 coins	4.5%	31	38.5	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$79.10 113 coins	8.0%	87	115.5	0.75×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	95.0%	$0.45 0.64 coins	2.9%	7,358	7316.9	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$16.6023.71 coins$2,0652,950 coins124.4x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert`FluffyFlow⭕⃤$16.3223.32 coins$1,7612,515 coins107.8x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$16.3223.32 coins$1,7612,515 coins107.8x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertCrashed$16.6023.71 coins$1,7212,459 coins103.7x8d

Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinarySpaZie$16.6023.71 coins$1,5412,201 coins92.83x4d

Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$16.6023.71 coins$1,5412,201 coins92.83x7d

Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$16.3723.39 coins$1,4112,015 coins86.15x2d

Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$16.5323.62 coins$1,4112,015 coins85.31x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$16.3223.32 coins$1,2881,840 coins78.90x2h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$16.3223.32 coins$1,2881,840 coins78.90x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$16.3223.32 coins$0.450.64 coins0.03x16m

P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specJake$16.3223.32 coins$0.450.64 coins0.03x16m

P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$16.3223.32 coins$0.450.64 coins0.03x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$16.32	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$16.37	90.92%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.40	90.89%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.60	90.92%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.8%extraordinary 1.0%restricted 0.2%mil spec 95.0%best hit $2,065 (124.4x)