Green Goblin

A case on CSGORoll (knives, awp, rifles, gloves, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.75

18.22 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $11.59 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.49%

10.5K openings, odds method

Variance

24.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.57%±30.231,044 openings

7 days

99.73%±10.179,105 openings

30 days

97.49%±9.4510.5K openings

since tracking started

97.49%±9.4510.5K openings

58.5%89.5%120.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,044	89.57%±30.2	−0.1σ	odds
7d	9,105	99.73%±10.2	+1.7σ	odds
30d	10.5K	97.49%±9.45	+1.3σ	odds
All	10.5K	97.49%±9.45	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100,000	$6,241 8,915 coins	0.5%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100,000	$5,978 8,540 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$4,263 6,090 coins	1.8%	1	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 50,000	$3,311 4,730 coins	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$2,079 2,970 coins	1.8%	1	1.1	0.95×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 3,333	$1,170 1,672 coins	3.0%	3	3.2	0.95×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$587 838 coins	2.5%	8	5.3	1.52×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$378 540 coins	4.9%	14	15.8	0.89×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 400	$356 508 coins	7.7%	25	26.3	0.95×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 133	$204 291 coins	13.2%	79	79.0	1.00×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$199 284 coins	8.6%	56	52.7	1.06×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$93.80 134 coins	10.1%	147	131.6	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$67.54 96.49 coins	5.8%	95	105.3	0.90×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$42.24 60.34 coins	7.3%	221	210.6	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$27.90 39.86 coins	3.6%	159	158.0	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$16.33 23.33 coins	4.6%	360	342.3	1.05×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$12.67 18.1 coins	5.5%	551	526.6	1.05×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$10.66 15.23 coins	5.5%	626	631.9	0.99×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$8.33 11.9 coins	2.9%	437	421.2	1.04×
Souvenir Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$7.20 10.28 coins	4.3%	750	737.2	1.02×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$3.09 4.42 coins	1.7%	691	684.5	1.01×
Operation Hydra Case Keyother · base	1 in 13	$1.98 2.83 coins	1.3%	760	789.8	0.96×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.72 2.45 coins	1.1%	765	763.6	1.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.80 1.15 coins	0.6%	881	895.1	0.98×
P2000 \| Turf (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	10.5%	$0.32 0.45 coins	0.3%	1,066	1105.8	0.96×
G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	14.5%	$0.13 0.18 coins	0.2%	1,497	1527.0	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · common	12.5%	$0.12 0.17 coins	0.1%	1,337	1316.4	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$13.0518.65 coins$6,2418,915 coins478.0x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertTABOR$12.7318.19 coins$4,2636,090 coins334.8x1d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$13.0718.67 coins$2,1073,010 coins161.2x8d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$13.0518.65 coins$1,2231,747 coins93.67x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldThe other other guy$12.7318.19 coins$1,1701,672 coins91.92x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$12.7518.21 coins$1,1701,672 coins91.82x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$12.7318.19 coins$587838 coins46.07x17h

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$12.7618.23 coins$587838 coins45.97x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$12.7718.24 coins$587838 coins45.94x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryRico.Ble$13.0518.65 coins$536765 coins41.02x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$12.7518.22 coins$3.094.42 coins0.24x10m

MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · commonDekan9$12.7518.22 coins$0.120.17 coins0.01x10m

MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · commonStitch$12.7518.22 coins$0.120.17 coins0.01x10m

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$12.7518.22 coins$1.722.45 coins0.13x10m

MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · common$12.7518.22 coins$0.120.17 coins0.01x11m

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$12.7518.22 coins$0.130.18 coins0.01x11m

P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specStitch$12.7518.22 coins$0.320.45 coins0.02x11m

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$12.7518.22 coins$42.2460.34 coins3.31x11m

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$12.7518.22 coins$1.722.45 coins0.13x12m

P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specStitch$12.7518.22 coins$0.320.45 coins0.02x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:28 UTC	$12.75	90.89%	27
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$12.75	90.89%	27
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$12.73	90.89%	27
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$12.74	90.90%	27
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$12.74	90.89%	27
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$12.75	90.89%	27
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$12.75	90.89%	27
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$12.80	90.92%	27
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$13.06	90.90%	27
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$13.05	90.93%	27
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$13.05	90.89%	27
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$13.06	90.92%	27
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$13.07	90.93%	27
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$13.07	90.91%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.3%epic 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 21.4%mil spec 19.3%classified 6.0%industrial 28.0%base 7.5%common 12.5%best hit $6,241 (478.0x)