Grim V2
A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$784.73
1,121 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $713.39 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
162.89%
82 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 82 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$7961,137 coins$12.8K18,291 coins16.09x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$7961,137 coins$12.8K18,291 coins16.09x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearltashud$7961,137 coins$8,05711,510 coins10.13x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldKickerrrrrrrr$7961,137 coins$6,6549,505 coins8.36x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$7961,137 coins$6,6549,505 coins8.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$7961,137 coins$9851,407 coins1.24x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldKickerrrrrrrr$7961,137 coins$6,6549,505 coins8.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $785 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $785 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $796 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%contraband 1.5%covert 12.2%legendary 4.3%extraordinary 2.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $12.8K (16.09x)