Guts
A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.01
14.3 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $9.10 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.56%
4,467 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,467 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBismillah Alrahim Alraham$10.0114.3 coins$0.570.81 coins0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.01 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.01 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.01 | 90.88% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.91 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $9.93 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $9.93 | 90.94% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.95 | 90.88% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%restricted 3.0%classified 2.0%mil spec 17.0%industrial 5.0%remarkable 10.0%consumer 60.0%best hit —