Gutted
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$598.77
855 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $544.34 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.47%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$599855 coins$1,0811,544 coins1.81x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$609870 coins$1,0771,538 coins1.77x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$599855 coins$1,0811,544 coins1.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $599 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $599 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $609 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.9%covert 62.6%distinguished 18.0%exotic 18.5%best hit $1,299 (2.17x)