Heavy

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$317.37

453 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $288.52 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.88%

611 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

43 openings · below min

7 days

84.26%±15.17561 openings

30 days

83.88%±14.53611 openings

since tracking started

83.88%±14.53611 openings

18.5%73.8%129.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	43	73.75%±54.7	—	odds
7d	561	84.26%±15.2	−0.9σ	odds
30d	611	83.88%±14.5	−0.9σ	odds
All	611	83.88%±14.5	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 611 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 333	$7,297 10,425 coins	7.6%	3	1.8	1.64×
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 400	$3,311 4,730 coins	2.9%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 167	$2,205 3,150 coins	4.6%	3	3.7	0.82×
AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$1,528 2,183 coins	9.5%	12	11.0	1.09×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 125	$1,438 2,054 coins	4.0%	1	4.9	0.20×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 222	$1,373 1,961 coins	2.1%	3	2.7	1.09×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$1,089 1,555 coins	4.5%	8	7.3	1.09×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$995 1,421 coins	10.3%	9	18.3	0.49×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$947 1,353 coins	13.1%	26	24.4	1.06×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$816 1,166 coins	2.8%	7	6.1	1.15×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 29	$746 1,066 coins	9.1%	21	21.4	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 15	$415 593 coins	9.5%	36	40.3	0.89×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 21	$410 586 coins	6.8%	25	29.3	0.85×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 19	$339 484 coins	6.1%	29	31.8	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 15	$310 443 coins	7.0%	28	39.7	0.71×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	215	183.3	1.17×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	184	183.3	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandFslayer90$322460 coins$7,47610,680 coins23.21x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$322460 coins$7,47610,680 coins23.21x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandKazlic$322460 coins$7,47610,680 coins23.21x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic$322460 coins$3,4234,890 coins10.62x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$317453 coins$2,2053,150 coins6.95x20h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$322460 coins$2,2053,150 coins6.84x4d

AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMopper$317453 coins$1,5282,183 coins4.81x1d

AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$322460 coins$1,4772,110 coins4.58x3d

AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertAcostaKurin$322460 coins$1,4772,110 coins4.58x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$317453 coins$310443 coins0.98x36m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHirschbaer$317453 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Rubykick/johncs LIVE$317453 coins$415593 coins1.31x3h

AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$317453 coins$9951,421 coins3.13x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$317453 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$317453 coins$339484 coins1.07x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$317453 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$317453 coins$310443 coins0.98x4h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$317453 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$317	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$322	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.3%epic 0.3%covert 39.5%consumer 60.0%best hit $7,476 (23.21x)