Heavy Hitter

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$34.99

49.98 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $31.81 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.74%

1,235 openings, odds method

Variance

7.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80 openings · below min

7 days

88.57%±16.351,019 openings

30 days

88.74%±14.851,235 openings

since tracking started

88.74%±14.851,235 openings

17.5%77.0%136.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	80	77.06%±58.7	—	odds
7d	1,019	88.57%±16.4	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,235	88.74%±14.8	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,235	88.74%±14.8	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,235 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$6,003 8,575 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$1,576 2,251 coins	1.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,559 2,227 coins	2.5%	1	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 526	$939 1,342 coins	5.6%	3	2.3	1.28×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$634 905 coins	4.0%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$264 377 coins	0.8%	4	1.2	3.24×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$230 328 coins	3.6%	0	6.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$163 233 coins	10.3%	20	24.7	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$62.27 88.95 coins	11.7%	77	74.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14	$61.51 87.87 coins	13.5%	78	86.5	0.90×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$56.39 80.56 coins	16.0%	132	111.1	1.19×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$49.06 70.09 coins	15.4%	137	123.5	1.11×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$32.80 46.86 coins	10.3%	119	123.5	0.96×
Souvenir AUG \| Condemned (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$3.37 4.81 coins	0.5%	63	61.8	1.02×
Sticker \| Watermelon Buttery (Holo)sticker · remarkable	10.0%	$3.14 4.48 coins	1.0%	125	123.5	1.01×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	14.9%	$2.52 3.6 coins	1.2%	184	184.4	1.00×
Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.13 1.62 coins	0.5%	174	185.3	0.94×
SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.56 0.8 coins	0.2%	117	123.5	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$35.3250.46 coins$1,5072,153 coins42.67x3d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$34.9949.98 coins$9391,342 coins26.85x1d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$34.9949.99 coins$9391,342 coins26.85x2d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryUser#507$35.3250.46 coins$9391,342 coins26.60x3d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$35.3250.45 coins$641916 coins18.16x7d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$34.9949.99 coins$634905 coins18.10x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restrictedAWP GOD$34.9949.98 coins$1.131.62 coins0.03x1h

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$34.9949.98 coins$61.5187.87 coins1.76x1h

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$34.9949.98 coins$32.8046.86 coins0.94x1h

Sticker | Watermelon Buttery (Holo)sticker · remarkable$34.9949.98 coins$3.144.48 coins0.09x1h

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$34.9949.98 coins$32.8046.86 coins0.94x1h

M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$34.9949.98 coins$62.2788.95 coins1.78x1h

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specAWP GOD$34.9949.98 coins$32.8046.86 coins0.94x1h

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted$34.9949.98 coins$1.131.62 coins0.03x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$34.99	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$34.99	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$34.97	90.90%	18
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$35.32	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$35.32	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 18.8%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 21.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 20.0%industrial 5.0%remarkable 10.0%Mythical 14.9%best hit $1,507 (42.67x)