Ice

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$364.28

520 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $331.16 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.94%

119 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

80.32%±22.47104 openings

30 days

83.94%±21.00119 openings

since tracking started

83.94%±21.00119 openings

7.5%59.5%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	59.59%±51.2	—	odds
7d	104	80.32%±22.5	−0.9σ	odds
30d	119	83.94%±21.0	−0.7σ	odds
All	119	83.94%±21.0	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$5,978 8,540 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$2,888 4,125 coins	7.0%	0	1.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 77	$1,865 2,665 coins	7.3%	2	1.5	1.29×
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$1,809 2,585 coins	1.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$1,576 2,251 coins	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$1,546 2,209 coins	2.3%	0	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 59	$1,037 1,482 coins	5.3%	3	2.0	1.48×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$939 1,342 coins	9.9%	3	4.2	0.72×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 36	$799 1,142 coins	6.8%	2	3.3	0.60×
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	14.0%	$344 492 coins	14.6%	18	16.7	1.08×
Sticker \| Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 17	$329 470 coins	6.0%	11	7.1	1.54×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$310 443 coins	4.2%	8	5.4	1.49×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	15.4%	$244 348 coins	11.3%	22	18.3	1.20×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	12.0%	$193 276 coins	7.0%	17	14.3	1.19×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 13	$155 221 coins	3.6%	11	9.3	1.19×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	15.0%	$129 184 coins	5.8%	12	17.8	0.67×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	14.0%	$92.40 132 coins	3.9%	10	16.7	0.60×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryTokzeen$375535 coins$1,9492,785 coins5.20x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$364520 coins$1,8652,665 coins5.12x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$375535 coins$1,0761,537 coins2.87x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$375535 coins$1,0761,537 coins2.87x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$364520 coins$9391,342 coins2.58x1d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$375535 coins$9391,342 coins2.51x4d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$375535 coins$9391,342 coins2.51x8d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert✪ Endlich 12$375535 coins$8301,186 coins2.22x5d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$375535 coins$8301,186 coins2.22x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$364520 coins$193276 coins0.53x4h

★ Classic Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$364520 coins$92.40132 coins0.25x7h

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$364520 coins$193276 coins0.53x10h

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$364520 coins$193276 coins0.53x11h

★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rareElturados$364520 coins$155221 coins0.42x12h

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$364520 coins$244348 coins0.67x14h

Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exoticIMIGHTSTABYOU$364520 coins$329470 coins0.90x15h

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covertIMIGHTSTABYOU$364520 coins$129184 coins0.35x15h

Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic$364520 coins$329470 coins0.90x16h

AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified$364520 coins$344492 coins0.95x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$364	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$375	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.7%extraordinary 10.1%classified 14.0%exotic 6.0%restricted 15.4%rare 7.8%best hit $1,949 (5.20x)