Infected mushrooms
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.17
7.38 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $4.70 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.23%
30.4K openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialNenerdBICEPS$5.177.38 coins$1.952.79 coins0.38x
StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.177.38 coins$6.058.64 coins1.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC | $5.17 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $5.32 | 90.95% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.28 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $5.40 | 90.86% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $5.45 | 90.85% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $5.54 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.28 | 90.85% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%restricted 19.4%covert 0.1%exotic 0.1%uncommon 0.1%mil spec 66.0%remarkable 4.2%industrial 10.0%best hit —