Kazlic

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$282.37

403 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $256.70 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.01%

282 openings, odds method

Variance

6.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

94.09%±35.85184 openings

30 days

91.01%±28.96282 openings

since tracking started

91.01%±28.96282 openings

-0.5%100.8%202.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	79.55%±121.6	—	odds
7d	184	94.09%±35.9	+0.2σ	odds
30d	282	91.01%±29.0	+0.0σ	odds
All	282	91.01%±29.0	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 282 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 33,333	$53.5K 76,380 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$11.9K 17,000 coins	4.6%	1	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$10.7K 15,300 coins	1.7%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$8,880 12,685 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$6,188 8,840 coins	3.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 3,333	$5,978 8,540 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$2,716 3,880 coins	10.6%	2	2.8	0.71×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 833	$1,949 2,785 coins	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$1,518 2,169 coins	7.4%	0	3.5	0.00×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$1,295 1,850 coins	4.5%	5	2.5	1.97×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 69	$1,292 1,845 coins	7.3%	5	4.1	1.22×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$1,047 1,495 coins	5.3%	3	3.7	0.82×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 87	$1,033 1,475 coins	4.6%	2	3.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 61	$952 1,360 coins	6.1%	6	4.7	1.29×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$804 1,148 coins	4.7%	5	4.2	1.18×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 39	$416 594 coins	4.1%	8	7.2	1.11×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$377 539 coins	3.9%	11	7.5	1.47×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 54	$260 372 coins	1.9%	5	5.2	0.96×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$253 362 coins	2.0%	9	5.6	1.60×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 44	$232 332 coins	2.0%	5	6.3	0.79×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 36	$147 210 coins	1.6%	6	7.8	0.77×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 29	$120 172 coins	1.6%	7	9.9	0.71×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 35	$104 148 coins	1.2%	8	8.0	1.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	13.2%	$98.00 140 coins	5.0%	33	37.2	0.89×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	15.3%	$95.20 136 coins	5.7%	36	43.0	0.84×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$86.80 124 coins	1.0%	12	8.5	1.42×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$85.40 122 coins	1.5%	11	12.7	0.87×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$61.61 88.01 coins	1.0%	12	11.3	1.06×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	15.0%	$57.77 82.53 coins	3.4%	46	42.3	1.09×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	14.0%	$26.36 37.66 coins	1.4%	44	39.5	1.11×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$288411 coins$11.9K17,000 coins41.32x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$288411 coins$11.9K17,000 coins41.32x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$288411 coins$2,8044,005 coins9.74x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$288411 coins$2,8044,005 coins9.74x7d

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$282403 coins$1,2921,845 coins4.57x14h

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$288411 coins$1,2921,845 coins4.48x5d

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$288411 coins$1,2921,845 coins4.48x7d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$288411 coins$1,2731,819 coins4.42x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$282403 coins$120172 coins0.43x21m

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$282403 coins$147210 coins0.52x21m

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$282403 coins$61.6188.01 coins0.22x21m

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarykarma$282403 coins$98.00140 coins0.35x21m

★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$282403 coins$232332 coins0.82x14h

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$282403 coins$1,2921,845 coins4.57x14h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$282403 coins$8041,148 coins2.85x14h

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarykarma$282403 coins$26.3637.66 coins0.09x14h

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$282403 coins$26.3637.66 coins0.09x14h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$282403 coins$85.40122 coins0.30x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$282	90.91%	30
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$283	90.91%	30
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$288	90.91%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.2%covert 57.1%extraordinary 39.1%classified 2.6%best hit $11.9K (41.32x)