Kintsugi

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.85

38.36 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $24.41 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.55%

1,812 openings, odds method

Variance

37.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 125

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

210 openings · below min

7 days

80.06%±32.121,384 openings

30 days

73.55%±28.091,812 openings

since tracking started

73.55%±28.091,812 openings

-0.5%73.8%148.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	210	65.29%±82.3	—	odds
7d	1,384	80.06%±32.1	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,812	73.55%±28.1	−1.2σ	odds
All	1,812	73.55%±28.1	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,812 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 667	$2,716 3,880 coins	16.7%	3	2.7	1.10×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,761 2,515 coins	18.0%	2	4.5	0.44×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,655 2,364 coins	6.8%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 333	$1,271 1,816 coins	15.6%	3	5.4	0.55×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 250	$377 539 coins	6.2%	9	7.2	1.24×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$188 269 coins	3.9%	11	9.1	1.21×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$70.70 101 coins	2.6%	24	16.3	1.47×
Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$45.92 65.6 coins	1.9%	11	18.1	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 71	$35.82 51.17 coins	2.1%	23	25.4	0.91×
Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	23.0%	$13.49 19.27 coins	12.7%	424	416.8	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$11.32 16.17 coins	3.2%	135	126.8	1.06×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$8.27 11.82 coins	1.0%	63	54.4	1.16×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	14.0%	$6.17 8.81 coins	3.5%	242	253.7	0.95×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	19.0%	$4.77 6.82 coins	3.7%	339	344.3	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	29.0%	$1.75 2.5 coins	2.1%	523	525.5	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$26.8738.39 coins$2,7623,945 coins102.8x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$26.8638.37 coins$2,7163,880 coins101.1x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Shiba inu$26.8638.37 coins$2,7163,880 coins101.1x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$26.8538.36 coins$1,7612,515 coins65.56x21h

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertNormyyyy$26.8938.41 coins$1,7212,459 coins64.02x5d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire$26.8538.36 coins$1,2711,816 coins47.34x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire$26.8638.37 coins$1,2711,816 coins47.33x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire$26.8938.41 coins$1,2711,816 coins47.28x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.8538.36 coins$6.178.81 coins0.23x4h

MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedVaulty$26.8538.36 coins$4.776.82 coins0.18x4h

Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$26.8538.36 coins$13.4919.27 coins0.50x4h

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$26.8538.36 coins$11.3216.17 coins0.42x4h

Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$26.8538.36 coins$13.4919.27 coins0.50x4h

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.8538.36 coins$6.178.81 coins0.23x8h

MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$26.8538.36 coins$4.776.82 coins0.18x8h

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSpud$26.8538.36 coins$6.178.81 coins0.23x8h

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBasHtricK$26.8538.36 coins$6.178.81 coins0.23x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$26.85	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$26.86	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$26.77	90.91%	15
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$26.87	90.92%	15
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$26.89	90.90%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.78	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.8%legendary 0.3%extraordinary 0.9%remarkable 1.0%mil spec 55.0%classified 40.0%best hit $2,762 (102.8x)