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Liquid

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$29.44
42.06 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $26.76 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.80%
2,261 openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.83%±44.06182 openings
7 days
98.57%±13.421,981 openings
30 days
94.80%±12.572,261 openings
since tracking started
94.80%±12.572,261 openings
41.0%85.8%130.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h18285.83%±44.1−0.2σodds
7d1,98198.57%±13.4+1.1σodds
30d2,26194.80%±12.6+0.6σodds
All2,26194.80%±12.6+0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,305 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 2,000$2,219 3,170 coins4.1%11.20.87×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 2,000$1,939 2,770 coins3.6%01.20.00×
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$1,142 1,632 coins2.1%41.23.47×
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$879 1,256 coins1.6%11.20.87×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 2,000$816 1,166 coins1.5%11.20.87×
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$566 808 coins1.1%11.20.87×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 1,000$451 644 coins1.7%42.31.74×
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 1,000$414 591 coins1.5%22.30.87×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 1,000$363 519 coins1.4%12.30.43×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 1,000$247 353 coins0.9%22.30.87×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 100$169 242 coins6.3%2823.11.21×
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$160 228 coins0.6%32.31.30×
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 59$149 213 coins9.5%4639.21.17×
★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 286$124 177 coins1.6%58.10.62×
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 667$118 168 coins0.7%53.51.45×
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$115 164 coins0.4%42.31.74×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 11$111 159 coins37.4%212207.41.02×
★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 182$95.90 137 coins2.0%1412.71.10×
★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 286$77.00 110 coins1.0%118.11.36×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 13$52.12 74.46 coins15.6%180184.40.98×
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 33$46.54 66.48 coins5.2%6969.11.00×
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial25.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%613576.31.06×
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial25.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%485576.30.84×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial25.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%613576.31.06×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$29.4542.07 coins$2,2193,170 coins75.35x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$29.7842.54 coins$1,2241,748 coins41.09x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$29.8342.62 coins$1,2241,748 coins41.01x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$29.4442.06 coins$1,1421,632 coins38.80x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$29.4442.06 coins$1,1421,632 coins38.80x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$29.4442.06 coins$8791,256 coins29.86x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$29.8342.62 coins$8181,169 coins27.43x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$29.8342.62 coins$564806 coins18.91x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$29.4442.06 coins$111159 coins3.78x
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial☯♥㊛$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert☯♥㊛$29.4442.06 coins$52.1274.46 coins1.77x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$29.4442.06 coins$52.1274.46 coins1.77x
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$29.4442.06 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC$29.4490.91%24
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$29.4590.91%24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$29.3290.90%24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$29.8390.91%24
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.3%extraordinary 0.7%classified 1.0%industrial 75.0%best hit $2,219 (75.35x)