Loser
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$177.42
253 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $161.29 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.74%
1,091 openings, odds method
Variance
15.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 48
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,091 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$179255 coins$10K14,325 coins56.13x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlZaligon$179255 coins$7,00010,000 coins39.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$177253 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $177 | 90.91% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.9%extraordinary 0.7%covert 8.4%consumer 90.0%best hit $10K (56.13x)