Maximized

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.82

2.6 coins

Advertised RTP

91.04%

EV $1.66 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.45%

203K openings, odds method

Variance

23.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 66

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.21%±5.6428.1K openings

7 days

93.33%±2.29172K openings

30 days

92.45%±2.11203K openings

since tracking started

92.45%±2.11203K openings

89.5%96.0%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28.1K	96.21%±5.64	+1.8σ	odds
7d	172K	93.33%±2.29	+2.1σ	odds
30d	203K	92.45%±2.11	+1.5σ	odds
All	203K	92.45%±2.11	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 203K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$172 246 coins	0.5%	10	10.2	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$107 153 coins	32.3%	1,059	1016.7	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000,000	$93.80 134 coins	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500,000	$77.00 110 coins	0.0%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200,000	$67.53 96.47 coins	0.0%	2	1.0	1.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333,333	$63.10 90.14 coins	0.0%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 333,333	$50.69 72.42 coins	0.0%	1	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$33.52 47.88 coins	10.1%	1,051	1016.7	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$29.02 41.46 coins	8.8%	1,023	1016.7	1.01×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$24.52 35.03 coins	7.4%	1,068	1016.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 200	$17.77 25.39 coins	5.4%	993	1016.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$16.97 24.24 coins	5.1%	1,019	1016.7	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$15.79 22.56 coins	0.2%	56	40.7	1.38×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$14.57 20.82 coins	4.4%	982	1016.7	0.97×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$12.66 18.08 coins	3.8%	1,059	1016.7	1.04×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$12.29 17.56 coins	3.7%	1,034	1016.7	1.02×
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$10.25 14.64 coins	3.1%	959	1016.7	0.94×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$9.86 14.09 coins	3.0%	995	1016.7	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$9.02 12.89 coins	2.7%	975	1016.7	0.96×
Sticker \| Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 200	$7.89 11.27 coins	2.4%	1,009	1016.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$7.86 11.23 coins	2.4%	1,027	1016.7	1.01×
Charm \| Baby Karat CTcharm · rare	1 in 10,000	$6.61 9.44 coins	0.0%	16	20.3	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$6.17 8.82 coins	1.9%	951	1016.7	0.94×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$3.02 4.32 coins	0.9%	1,005	1016.7	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$1.72 2.45 coins	0.7%	1,475	1451.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 133	$1.22 1.75 coins	0.6%	1,537	1525.0	1.01×
P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$0.68 0.97 coins	0.2%	1,031	1016.7	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.2%	91,122	91500.3	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.2%	91,875	91500.3	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.822.6 coins$172246 coins94.62x17h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.822.6 coins$172246 coins94.62x19h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.822.6 coins$172246 coins94.62x23h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.792.56 coins$169241 coins94.14x3d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.792.56 coins$169241 coins94.14x5d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.792.56 coins$169241 coins94.14x6d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.792.56 coins$169241 coins94.14x7d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert70/30 Grogg$1.792.56 coins$169241 coins94.14x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covertsi^b^rO$1.822.6 coins$107153 coins58.85x13s

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$1.822.6 coins$29.0241.46 coins15.95x29s

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.822.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x44s

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerPoarad | csgoroll.com$1.822.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x44s

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.822.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.822.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSolatyre$1.822.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1.822.6 coins$16.9724.24 coins9.32x1m

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.822.6 coins$9.0212.89 coins4.96x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1.822.6 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$1.82	91.04%	29
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$1.82	91.02%	29
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$1.82	91.06%	29
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$1.79	90.88%	29
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$1.79	90.87%	29
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$1.79	90.87%	29
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.79	90.87%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.5%restricted 1.7%classified 3.5%rare 0.5%mil spec 1.8%exotic 0.5%pink 0.5%consumer 90.0%best hit $172 (94.62x)