Mitosis
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$295.24
422 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $268.40 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.05%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$295422 coins$7931,133 coins2.69x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$295422 coins$206294 coins0.70x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$295422 coins$206294 coins0.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $295 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $295 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $297 | 90.91% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 67.1%legendary 0.6%extraordinary 4.3%restricted 15.0%classified 13.0%best hit $878 (2.95x)