Momentum
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$156.31
223 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $142.10 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.84%
49 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 49 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarytashud$154221 coins$8881,269 coins5.75x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$154221 coins$543775 coins3.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$156223 coins$274391 coins1.75x
Sticker | ELEAGUE (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · exoticCall me Johnny$156223 coins$14.7321.04 coins0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $154 | 90.91% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 21.1%extraordinary 4.6%legendary 0.4%restricted 29.4%classified 4.5%exotic 40.0%best hit $888 (5.75x)