Monochromatic
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.66
9.51 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $6.05 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.27%
10.9K openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $426 609 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $218 311 coins | 1.8% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.10× |
| MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 67 | $146 209 coins | 36.3% | 164 | 163.4 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $116 166 coins | 1.9% | 11 | 10.9 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $77.00 110 coins | 6.4% | 48 | 54.5 | 0.88× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 15 | $15.79 22.56 coins | 17.0% | 677 | 708.0 | 0.96× |
| SSG 08 | Detour (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 16.0% | $11.47 16.38 coins | 30.3% | 1,728 | 1742.9 | 0.99× |
| XM1014 | Quicksilver (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 55.3% | $0.47 0.67 coins | 4.3% | 6,029 | 6028.2 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.42 0.6 coins | 1.4% | 2,229 | 2178.6 | 1.02× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$6.669.51 coins$15.7922.56 coins2.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $6.66 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $6.66 | 90.89% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.65 | 90.87% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.74 | 90.88% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $6.75 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $6.74 | 90.89% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $6.74 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.71 | 90.89% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%mil spec 92.8%classified 6.6%restricted 0.5%best hit $426 (63.14x)