Nebula

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$57.46

82.09 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $52.24 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.88%

994 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

57 openings · below min

7 days

90.40%±15.38720 openings

30 days

94.88%±13.10994 openings

since tracking started

94.88%±13.10994 openings

23.5%78.3%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	57	78.41%±54.1	—	odds
7d	720	90.40%±15.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	994	94.88%±13.1	+0.6σ	odds
All	994	94.88%±13.1	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 996 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$931 1,330 coins	17.8%	11	10.0	1.10×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$832 1,188 coins	8.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 125	$449 641 coins	6.9%	10	8.0	1.26×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$200 286 coins	13.4%	39	34.9	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$170 243 coins	8.1%	24	24.9	0.96×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$129 184 coins	2.5%	12	10.0	1.20×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$113 162 coins	2.6%	14	12.0	1.17×
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$72.80 104 coins	4.9%	33	34.9	0.95×
Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$66.50 95 coins	5.1%	39	39.8	0.98×
Sawed-Off \| First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$56.76 81.09 coins	5.8%	71	53.3	1.33×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$49.41 70.59 coins	5.1%	55	53.3	1.03×
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$37.56 53.65 coins	2.2%	14	29.9	0.47×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$26.67 38.1 coins	2.0%	43	39.8	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$24.23 34.62 coins	2.5%	62	53.3	1.16×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$23.96 34.23 coins	2.5%	53	53.3	0.99×
P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$21.74 31.05 coins	2.2%	47	53.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 19	$17.07 24.38 coins	1.7%	44	53.3	0.83×
Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$13.29 18.98 coins	1.4%	44	53.3	0.83×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$10.79 15.42 coins	1.1%	54	53.3	1.01×
Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$9.22 13.17 coins	0.9%	48	53.3	0.90×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$9.09 12.98 coins	0.9%	60	53.3	1.13×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$8.96 12.8 coins	0.9%	48	53.3	0.90×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$6.36 9.09 coins	0.7%	57	53.3	1.07×
Negev \| Infrastructure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.8%	$4.18 5.97 coins	0.9%	110	107.6	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$56.8381.18 coins$9441,349 coins16.62x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarysuppEN$56.8381.18 coins$9441,349 coins16.62x5d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$56.8381.18 coins$9441,349 coins16.62x6d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryDarkpik$56.8381.18 coins$9441,349 coins16.62x6d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryStigerud$56.8381.18 coins$9441,349 coins16.62x7d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$56.8381.18 coins$9441,349 coins16.62x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$57.4682.09 coins$13.2918.98 coins0.23x1m

Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$57.4682.09 coins$8.9612.8 coins0.16x1h

P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$57.4682.09 coins$6.369.09 coins0.11x2h

Negev | Infrastructure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$57.4682.09 coins$4.185.97 coins0.07x2h

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$57.4682.09 coins$9.0912.98 coins0.16x8h

AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$57.4682.09 coins$23.9634.23 coins0.42x9h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$57.4682.09 coins$449641 coins7.81x9h

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedAvyrian$57.4682.09 coins$10.7915.42 coins0.19x9h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil specMedical Shit$57.4682.09 coins$49.4170.59 coins0.86x9h

★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$57.4682.09 coins$129184 coins2.24x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$57.46	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$57.85	90.91%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$56.83	90.90%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 8.0%covert 9.5%mil spec 25.0%restricted 20.0%industrial 21.4%classified 16.1%best hit $944 (16.62x)