Nimbus

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.12

15.88 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $10.10 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.73%

1,964 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.29%±15.51167 openings

7 days

89.87%±4.921,704 openings

30 days

89.73%±4.581,964 openings

since tracking started

89.73%±4.581,964 openings

80.0%96.3%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	167	96.29%±15.5	+0.7σ	odds
7d	1,704	89.87%±4.92	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,964	89.73%±4.58	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,964	89.73%±4.58	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,964 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 20,000	$323 461 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$197 281 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$174 249 coins	0.1%	1	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,030	$102 145 coins	0.3%	1	0.6	—
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$72.80 104 coins	7.2%	17	19.6	0.87×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$57.92 82.74 coins	8.6%	30	29.5	1.02×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$33.87 48.38 coins	5.0%	20	29.5	0.68×
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 50	$21.53 30.75 coins	4.3%	36	39.3	0.92×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$17.72 25.31 coins	5.3%	69	58.9	1.17×
Patch \| Sunset Wavepatch · remarkable	11.0%	$16.29 23.27 coins	17.7%	207	216.0	0.96×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$15.07 21.53 coins	10.4%	127	137.5	0.92×
Souvenir SCAR-20 \| Storm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	1 in 12	$13.91 19.87 coins	11.4%	173	162.0	1.07×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$10.70 15.28 coins	1.3%	14	23.6	0.59×
Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.0%	$9.50 13.57 coins	12.2%	276	255.3	1.08×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$3.94 5.63 coins	5.9%	327	294.6	1.11×
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$2.89 4.13 coins	4.3%	282	294.6	0.96×
SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	20.5%	$2.84 4.06 coins	5.8%	384	402.6	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.1215.88 coins$3.945.63 coins0.35x24m

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specJohn Pork$11.1215.88 coins$2.894.13 coins0.26x24m

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$11.1215.88 coins$15.0721.53 coins1.36x24m

Patch | Sunset Wavepatch · remarkable$11.1215.88 coins$16.2923.27 coins1.47x24m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.1215.88 coins$3.945.63 coins0.35x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$11.12	90.89%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$11.14	90.93%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$11.16	90.89%	17
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$11.16	90.90%	17
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$11.17	90.89%	17
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$11.25	90.88%	17
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$11.51	90.90%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.62	90.89%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 11.0%classified 11.5%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 49.7%industrial 1.0%restricted 16.5%exotic 2.0%consumer 8.3%best hit —