Nyctophobia

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$47.47

67.81 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $43.15 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.61%

2,187 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.66%±16.19212 openings

7 days

88.96%±5.441,856 openings

30 days

88.61%±5.012,187 openings

since tracking started

88.61%±5.012,187 openings

65.0%81.8%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	212	81.66%±16.2	−1.1σ	odds
7d	1,856	88.96%±5.44	−0.7σ	odds
30d	2,187	88.61%±5.01	−0.9σ	odds
All	2,187	88.61%±5.01	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,187 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,177 1,682 coins	1.4%	1	1.1	0.91×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$634 905 coins	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · legendary · Phase 3	1 in 20,000	$533 762 coins	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$475 679 coins	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 6,667	$428 611 coins	0.1%	2	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,333	$421 602 coins	0.7%	1	1.6	0.61×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$370 529 coins	1.3%	0	3.3	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$334 477 coins	1.9%	4	5.5	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$218 311 coins	2.3%	5	9.8	0.51×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 154	$202 288 coins	3.0%	16	14.2	1.13×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$194 277 coins	0.4%	1	2.2	0.46×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$163 233 coins	5.7%	30	32.8	0.91×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$100 143 coins	1.9%	14	17.5	0.80×
Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 17	$100 143 coins	13.9%	138	131.2	1.05×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$82.60 118 coins	5.7%	75	65.6	1.14×
AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$78.40 112 coins	20.0%	222	240.6	0.92×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$76.30 109 coins	2.1%	33	26.2	1.26×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$75.60 108 coins	8.8%	111	109.4	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3	1 in 13	$67.54 96.49 coins	12.5%	164	175.0	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	11.7%	$64.58 92.25 coins	17.6%	268	256.5	1.04×
Sticker \| Say Cheese (Holo)sticker · common	12.5%	$0.35 0.5 coins	0.1%	281	273.4	1.03×
Sticker \| Guttedsticker · high	12.5%	$0.28 0.4 coins	0.1%	257	273.4	0.94×
Charm \| Hot Saucecharm · uncommon	12.5%	$0.15 0.21 coins	0.0%	273	273.4	1.00×
Charm \| Pinch O' Saltcharm · uncommon	12.5%	$0.12 0.17 coins	0.0%	290	273.4	1.06×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$47.3367.61 coins$1,0661,523 coins22.53x3d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · legendary · Phase 3xSazukiii$47.3367.61 coins$550785 coins11.61x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert$47.4767.81 coins$64.5892.25 coins1.36x21m

Sticker | Guttedsticker · high$47.4767.81 coins$0.280.4 coins0.01x21m

Charm | Pinch O' Saltcharm · uncommon$47.4767.81 coins$0.120.17 coins0.00x25m

★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$47.4767.81 coins$75.60108 coins1.59x27m

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3$47.4767.81 coins$67.5496.49 coins1.42x29m

Sticker | Say Cheese (Holo)sticker · common$47.4767.81 coins$0.350.5 coins0.01x30m

Sticker | Guttedsticker · high$47.4767.81 coins$0.280.4 coins0.01x34m

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert$47.4767.81 coins$64.5892.25 coins1.36x1h

AK-47 | First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedJarza$47.4767.81 coins$78.40112 coins1.65x1h

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedJarza$47.4767.81 coins$82.60118 coins1.74x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$47.47	90.91%	24
9 Nov, 02:02 UTC	$47.47	90.90%	24
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$47.47	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$47.48	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$47.22	90.91%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$47.33	90.91%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 7.5%covert 27.6%legendary 0.0%restricted 11.2%classified 3.6%common 12.5%high 12.5%uncommon 25.0%best hit $1,066 (22.53x)