Obscura
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.00
14.28 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $9.09 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.37%
2,670 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,676 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $10.00 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.03 | 90.88% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.03 | 90.88% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.14 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $10.14 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $10.10 | 90.94% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $10.11 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.11 | 90.90% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%covert 12.1%classified 17.5%mil spec 23.5%restricted 16.4%extraordinary 1.1%rare 1.4%#8847ff 8.0%industrial 20.0%best hit —