Obsidian
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.96
34.23 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $21.78 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.73%
879 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 883 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.9634.23 coins$26.4637.8 coins1.10x
Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.9634.23 coins$26.4637.8 coins1.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $23.96 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.06 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.67 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $23.37 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $23.26 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.28 | 90.92% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.1%covert 4.7%classified 34.0%rare 0.2%mil spec 1.0%restricted 10.0%remarkable 15.0%exotic 15.0%Legendary 20.0%best hit —