Oceanic

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.81

42.59 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $27.10 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.80%

3,873 openings, odds method

Variance

5.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

113.39%±24.63333 openings

7 days

91.92%±7.993,194 openings

30 days

90.80%±7.263,873 openings

since tracking started

90.80%±7.263,873 openings

83.0%110.8%138.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	333	113.39%±24.6	+1.8σ	odds
7d	3,194	91.92%±7.99	+0.3σ	odds
30d	3,873	90.80%±7.26	−0.0σ	odds
All	3,873	90.80%±7.26	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 100,000	$1,100 1,572 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$839 1,199 coins	3.1%	4	3.9	1.03×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$816 1,166 coins	0.2%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$474 677 coins	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$420 600 coins	4.6%	13	11.6	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$293 418 coins	2.2%	6	7.7	0.77×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$274 392 coins	5.1%	25	19.4	1.29×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 38	$260 372 coins	25.0%	102	100.7	1.01×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$158 226 coins	8.2%	53	54.2	0.98×
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 143	$149 213 coins	3.9%	24	27.1	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$136 194 coins	5.0%	43	38.7	1.11×
Sticker \| shroud (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 29	$120 171 coins	15.0%	131	131.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$81.90 117 coins	12.2%	154	156.7	0.98×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 29	$69.57 99.39 coins	9.0%	130	135.6	0.96×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 45	$62.86 89.8 coins	5.1%	80	85.2	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	80.0%	$0.21 0.3 coins	0.6%	3,109	3099.2	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$29.7242.45 coins$8581,225 coins28.86x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertUser#878$29.7242.45 coins$8581,225 coins28.86x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$29.7242.45 coins$8581,225 coins28.86x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$29.8142.59 coins$149213 coins5.00x1m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specJarza$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x1m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x3m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x4m

Sticker | shroud (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exoticFuldasgamer$29.8142.59 coins$120171 coins4.02x4m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x8m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x12m

Sticker | shroud (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic$29.8142.59 coins$120171 coins4.02x12m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x15m

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specwSe$29.8142.59 coins$0.210.3 coins0.01x17m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$29.81	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$29.83	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$29.67	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$29.72	90.92%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 8.1%classified 1.5%restricted 0.2%industrial 6.8%exotic 3.4%mil spec 80.0%best hit $858 (28.86x)