Odins Arsenal
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$451.05
644 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $410.05 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.75%
33 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 33 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $11.6K 16,550 coins | 14.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 15.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 67 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $1,697 2,424 coins | 37.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 13.0% | $440 628 coins | 13.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $92.40 132 coins | 5.6% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.73× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $70.70 101 coins | 4.3% | 13 | 8.3 | 1.58× |
| P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $46.51 66.44 coins | 2.8% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.97× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil speczZz Destro smacks^IB$451644 coins$46.5166.44 coins0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $451 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $452 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $487 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.5%extraordinary 1.5%mil spec 50.0%classified 25.0%best hit $1,977 (4.06x)