Otherworldly
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.37
56.24 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $35.79 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.87%
630 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 630 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $402 574 coins | 5.6% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.90× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 67 | $356 508 coins | 14.9% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.95× |
| USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $99.40 142 coins | 27.8% | 61 | 63.0 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $80.50 115 coins | 20.2% | 56 | 56.7 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $59.89 85.56 coins | 13.4% | 58 | 50.4 | 1.15× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $20.05 28.65 coins | 7.8% | 89 | 88.2 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $17.07 24.38 coins | 6.7% | 92 | 88.2 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 14.0% | $5.17 7.38 coins | 2.0% | 80 | 88.2 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $3.59 5.13 coins | 1.4% | 85 | 88.2 | 0.96× |
| Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.33 0.47 coins | 0.1% | 94 | 94.5 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKlass 2$39.3756.24 coins$3.595.13 coins0.09x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertKlass 2$39.3756.24 coins$80.50115 coins2.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $39.37 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.37 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $38.19 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.24 | 90.92% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 22.5%covert 20.5%restricted 28.0%Mythical 14.0%mil spec 15.0%best hit —