Perfectly Purple
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.05
54.35 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $34.59 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.23%
905 openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 941 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 16.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $431 616 coins | 12.5% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.74× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 45 | $164 234 coins | 10.4% | 26 | 20.7 | 1.26× |
| USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 11.0% | $97.30 139 coins | 30.9% | 110 | 103.5 | 1.06× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $43.49 62.13 coins | 12.6% | 99 | 94.1 | 1.05× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 6.4% | 58 | 56.5 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 23.0% | $12.52 17.89 coins | 8.3% | 211 | 216.4 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 23.0% | $2.94 4.2 coins | 2.0% | 204 | 216.4 | 0.94× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 23.5% | $1.06 1.51 coins | 0.7% | 224 | 221.1 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$37.9954.27 coins$1,9492,785 coins51.32x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$38.0054.28 coins$1,9492,785 coins51.31x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.05 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.82 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $37.99 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.00 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%covert 24.2%classified 29.0%restricted 46.5%best hit $1,949 (51.32x)