Piracy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$157.28

225 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $142.98 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.13%

117 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

21 openings · below min

7 days

62.17%±38.21111 openings

30 days

64.13%±37.18117 openings

since tracking started

64.13%±37.18117 openings

-0.5%70.0%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	21	49.56%±90.5	—	odds
7d	111	62.17%±38.2	−1.5σ	odds
30d	117	64.13%±37.2	−1.4σ	odds
All	117	64.13%±37.2	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$4,263 6,090 coins	14.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,257 1,796 coins	8.8%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$470 672 coins	9.9%	2	3.5	0.57×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$274 392 coins	19.2%	10	11.7	0.85×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$269 384 coins	9.4%	4	5.9	0.68×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	10.0%	$218 311 coins	15.2%	7	11.7	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.5%	$77.00 110 coins	5.7%	11	12.3	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$66.79 95.42 coins	7.0%	22	17.6	1.25×
P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$46.51 66.44 coins	4.9%	19	17.6	1.08×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	15.0%	$41.28 58.97 coins	4.3%	20	17.6	1.14×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$7.04 10.05 coins	0.7%	21	17.6	1.20×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$158226 coins$1,2571,796 coins7.94x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$157225 coins$46.5166.44 coins0.30x12h

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$157225 coins$41.2858.97 coins0.26x12h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$157225 coins$7.0410.05 coins0.04x12h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPaRtY bOi csgoroll.com$157225 coins$66.7995.42 coins0.42x12h

P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$157225 coins$46.5166.44 coins0.30x15h

Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$157225 coins$77.00110 coins0.49x15h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$157225 coins$66.7995.42 coins0.42x15h

Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$157225 coins$77.00110 coins0.49x15h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$157225 coins$66.7995.42 coins0.42x15h

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertDan$157225 coins$41.2858.97 coins0.26x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$157	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$158	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$158	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.5%restricted 30.5%extraordinary 10.0%classified 15.0%mil spec 15.0%best hit $1,257 (7.94x)