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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.54

26.49 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $16.85 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.86%

3,483 openings, odds method

Variance

5.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.74%±18.79555 openings

7 days

87.09%±8.182,975 openings

30 days

85.86%±7.573,483 openings

since tracking started

85.86%±7.573,483 openings

70.5%89.8%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	555	89.74%±18.8	−0.1σ	odds
7d	2,975	87.09%±8.18	−0.9σ	odds
30d	3,483	85.86%±7.57	−1.3σ	odds
All	3,483	85.86%±7.57	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,483 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 10,000	$1,583 2,262 coins	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$277 396 coins	1.6%	2	3.5	0.57×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$210 300 coins	37.4%	96	104.5	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$134 192 coins	2.4%	12	10.4	1.15×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10	$50.27 71.81 coins	29.6%	324	345.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 147	$44.47 63.53 coins	1.8%	25	23.7	1.06×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$36.40 52 coins	2.2%	41	34.8	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50	$28.39 40.56 coins	3.4%	78	69.7	1.12×
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 200	$21.87 31.24 coins	0.6%	19	17.4	1.09×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$21.54 30.77 coins	5.1%	138	139.3	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$14.55 20.78 coins	1.3%	53	52.2	1.01×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$12.39 17.7 coins	5.9%	260	278.6	0.93×
Charm \| Diamond Dogcharm · rare	1 in 50	$4.33 6.18 coins	0.5%	60	69.7	0.86×
MAG-7 \| Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$2.62 3.74 coins	1.9%	421	418.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$1.91 2.73 coins	1.7%	508	522.4	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	40.0%	$1.58 2.26 coins	3.8%	1,446	1393.2	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.5426.49 coins$1.582.26 coins0.09x56m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$18.5426.49 coins$1.912.73 coins0.10x56m

MAG-7 | Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$18.5426.49 coins$2.623.74 coins0.14x56m

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covertJake$18.5426.49 coins$50.2771.81 coins2.71x56m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.5426.49 coins$1.582.26 coins0.09x1h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$18.5426.49 coins$1.912.73 coins0.10x1h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$18.5426.49 coins$1.582.26 coins0.09x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$18.54	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$18.56	90.90%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$18.79	90.89%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.9%classified 10.6%Ancient 2.0%rare 2.5%restricted 44.0%mil spec 27.0%best hit —