Prototype
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.76
6.8 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $4.33 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.98%
9,642 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,648 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $4.76 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.84 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.54 | 90.95% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $4.50 | 90.94% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.44 | 90.88% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%restricted 14.0%industrial 5.0%mil spec 13.5%classified 5.0%milspec 20.0%consumer 40.0%best hit —