Radiation

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$181.69

260 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $165.17 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.29%

34 openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

34 openings · below min

since tracking started

34 openings · below min

-0.5%67.8%136.0%

Small sample. 34 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	20	48.32%±79.8	—	odds
30d	34	74.29%±61.2	—	odds
All	34	74.29%±61.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$2,716 3,880 coins	4.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$1,900 2,715 coins	17.3%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$1,543 2,204 coins	4.7%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 91	$1,387 1,982 coins	9.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$1,170 1,672 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 83	$856 1,223 coins	6.2%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 125	$533 762 coins	2.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 77	$517 738 coins	4.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$433 619 coins	2.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$323 461 coins	3.9%	0	0.7	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 40	$197 281 coins	3.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 45	$194 277 coins	2.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 37	$192 274 coins	3.1%	2	0.9	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 29	$142 203 coins	3.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$122 175 coins	2.2%	1	1.0	0.98×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 25	$88.20 126 coins	2.1%	1	1.4	0.74×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$86.10 123 coins	2.6%	3	1.7	1.76×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$85.40 122 coins	10.3%	9	6.8	1.32×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$75.60 108 coins	3.2%	4	2.4	1.68×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 15	$66.68 95.26 coins	2.6%	2	2.2	0.90×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$47.80 68.28 coins	2.6%	4	3.1	1.31×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	24.8%	$42.24 60.34 coins	6.3%	6	8.4	0.71×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.