Rain
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,319.29
3,313 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $2,108.44 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.89%
69 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 69 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertPeach Panther$2,3533,361 coins$11.9K17,000 coins5.06x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryFslayer90$2,3533,361 coins$5,5487,925 coins2.36x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,3533,361 coins$2,8184,025 coins1.20x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,3533,361 coins$2,8184,025 coins1.20x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,3533,361 coins$2,8184,025 coins1.20x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$2,3533,361 coins$2,8044,005 coins1.19x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,3193,313 coins$2,7693,955 coins1.19x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$2,3193,313 coins$2,7693,955 coins1.19x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$2,3533,361 coins$1,5392,199 coins0.65x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified🟢LIVE NOW -> kick.com/budics$2,3193,313 coins$7011,001 coins0.30x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$2,3193,313 coins$1,3871,982 coins0.60x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$2,3193,313 coins$1,2991,855 coins0.56x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$2,3193,313 coins$1,3871,982 coins0.60x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$2,3193,313 coins$1,2991,855 coins0.56x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphired3ad$2,3193,313 coins$302432 coins0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2,319 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,353 | 90.91% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.5%covert 52.5%extraordinary 23.0%remarkable 10.0%classified 12.0%best hit $11.9K (5.06x)