Rainbow

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$133.68

191 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $121.53 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.78%

19 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

19 openings · below min

30 days

19 openings · below min

since tracking started

19 openings · below min

45.5%80.8%116.0%

Small sample. 19 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	19	80.78%±34.7	—	odds
30d	19	80.78%±34.7	—	odds
All	19	80.78%±34.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,194 1,706 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$557 795 coins	2.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 400	$523 747 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$412 589 coins	5.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 125	$368 526 coins	2.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 77	$277 396 coins	3.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 222	$241 345 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	14.4%	$234 335 coins	27.8%	2	2.7	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$218 311 coins	5.0%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 29	$210 300 coins	6.0%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14	$157 224 coins	9.3%	2	1.4	1.47×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$133 190 coins	6.6%	2	1.1	1.75×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 22	$122 174 coins	4.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	14.0%	$91.70 131 coins	10.6%	0	2.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.5%	$69.05 98.65 coins	7.1%	3	2.4	1.26×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	15.0%	$38.31 54.73 coins	4.7%	6	2.9	2.11×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	15.0%	$16.22 23.17 coins	2.0%	1	2.9	0.35×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare$134191 coins$38.3154.73 coins0.29x1d

AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommonLuxi$134191 coins$16.2223.17 coins0.12x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$134191 coins$157224 coins1.17x1d

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted$134191 coins$69.0598.65 coins0.52x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare`FluffyFlow⭕⃤$134191 coins$38.3154.73 coins0.29x1d

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedT1NT1N$134191 coins$412589 coins3.08x2d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rareFaQ$133190 coins$39.2656.09 coins0.29x4d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare$133190 coins$39.2656.09 coins0.29x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$133190 coins$146209 coins1.10x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$134	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$134	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$133	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 25.6%restricted 14.2%legendary 1.3%epic 0.4%classified 28.4%rare 15.0%uncommon 15.0%best hit —