Rainfall
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.21
7.44 coins
Advertised RTP
90.86%
EV $4.73 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.97%
7,742 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,756 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $5.21 | 90.86% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.20 | 90.95% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.19 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.27 | 90.96% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $5.26 | 90.87% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.26 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.35 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%restricted 23.5%mil spec 44.8%industrial 30.0%best hit —