Razor sharp

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$83.59

119 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $75.99 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

49.04%

55 openings, odds method

Variance

15.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

13 openings · below min

30 days

55 openings · below min

since tracking started

55 openings · below min

-0.5%135.5%271.5%

Small sample. 55 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	13	57.76%±213.2	—	odds
30d	55	49.04%±104.2	—	odds
All	55	49.04%±104.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 800	$7,000 10,000 coins	11.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 455	$3,892 5,560 coins	11.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,333	$2,615 3,735 coins	2.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$1,438 2,054 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 333	$966 1,380 coins	3.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$937 1,339 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 222	$874 1,248 coins	5.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 357	$743 1,061 coins	2.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 154	$445 636 coins	3.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 43	$174 249 coins	5.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 125	$123 176 coins	1.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 28	$108 154 coins	5.1%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$95.90 137 coins	3.8%	3	1.6	1.82×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$88.20 126 coins	1.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 56	$72.10 103 coins	1.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert	1 in 77	$64.46 92.08 coins	1.1%	1	0.7	—
★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$55.69 79.56 coins	2.9%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 22	$50.59 72.27 coins	3.0%	3	2.5	1.21×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 16	$44.56 63.65 coins	3.8%	5	3.5	1.42×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	18.0%	$38.19 54.56 coins	9.0%	12	9.9	1.21×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	22.0%	$27.22 38.88 coins	7.9%	11	12.1	0.91×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	29.0%	$26.89 38.42 coins	10.3%	16	15.9	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.