Riddle
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.65
30.93 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $19.69 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.28%
1,366 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,366 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Tatter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedCousin of po$21.6530.93 coins$3.344.77 coins0.15x
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3FLURRAN csgoroll.com$21.6530.93 coins$106152 coins4.91x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $21.65 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.66 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.25 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $21.24 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $21.19 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.22 | 90.90% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.7%covert 9.5%remarkable 0.8%mil spec 13.1%restricted 36.7%consumer 19.4%best hit —