Roasted

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$121.52

174 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $110.48 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.28%

108 openings, odds method

Variance

7.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

90 openings · below min

30 days

91.28%±50.57108 openings

since tracking started

91.28%±50.57108 openings

33.0%89.0%145.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	90	89.22%±55.3	—	odds
30d	108	91.28%±50.6	+0.0σ	odds
All	108	91.28%±50.6	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$11.4K 16,295 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$7,297 10,425 coins	3.3%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$6,808 9,725 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20,000	$6,657 9,510 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$3,892 5,560 coins	3.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$3,213 4,590 coins	7.3%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$1,559 2,227 coins	3.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$1,520 2,172 coins	2.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 667	$1,467 2,096 coins	2.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 286	$1,132 1,617 coins	3.6%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$895 1,279 coins	2.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 200	$592 846 coins	2.7%	1	0.5	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 143	$444 634 coins	2.8%	2	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$412 589 coins	5.6%	2	1.6	1.23×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 111	$309 442 coins	2.5%	2	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$170 243 coins	12.3%	10	8.6	1.16×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 22	$117 167 coins	4.8%	9	4.9	1.85×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 53	$95.20 136 coins	1.6%	2	2.1	0.97×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$95.20 136 coins	4.3%	2	5.4	0.37×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 40	$82.60 118 coins	1.9%	2	2.7	0.74×
★ Bowie Knifeknife · covert	1 in 14	$73.50 105 coins	4.7%	9	7.6	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	19.7%	$70.70 101 coins	12.6%	20	21.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	15.0%	$48.33 69.05 coins	6.6%	17	16.2	1.05×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald	12.0%	$30.87 44.1 coins	3.4%	11	13.0	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	18.0%	$29.46 42.09 coins	4.8%	16	19.4	0.82×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$16.42 23.46 coins	0.2%	1	1.3	0.77×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$123175 coins$1,1751,679 coins9.59x7d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$122174 coins$8951,279 coins7.37x2d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$122174 coins$592846 coins4.87x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrialUser#878$122174 coins$70.70101 coins0.58x2d

Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$122174 coins$170243 coins1.40x2d

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$122174 coins$70.70101 coins0.58x2d

Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$122174 coins$29.4642.09 coins0.24x2d

★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald$122174 coins$30.8744.1 coins0.25x2d

★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertUser#878$122174 coins$117167 coins0.96x2d

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$122174 coins$70.70101 coins0.58x2d

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$122174 coins$48.3369.05 coins0.40x2d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$122174 coins$95.20136 coins0.78x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$122	90.91%	26
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$121	90.91%	26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$123	90.91%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.3%contraband 0.1%classified 2.8%epic 0.5%restricted 1.5%extraordinary 17.0%industrial 19.7%uncommon 18.0%mil spec 1.2%best hit $1,175 (9.59x)