Sapphire

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$123.89

177 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $112.63 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.57%

142 openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

81.15%±41.22126 openings

30 days

79.57%±38.83142 openings

since tracking started

79.57%±38.83142 openings

39.5%81.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	126	81.15%±41.2	−0.5σ	odds
30d	142	79.57%±38.8	−0.6σ	odds
All	142	79.57%±38.8	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 142 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$10.7K 15,300 coins	4.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$3,311 4,730 coins	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 556	$2,769 3,955 coins	4.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$1,576 2,251 coins	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 250	$457 653 coins	1.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 500	$445 636 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$348 497 coins	6.2%	4	2.8	1.41×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$316 452 coins	1.7%	2	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$276 394 coins	4.9%	1	2.8	0.35×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$255 365 coins	10.2%	7	6.4	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 182	$247 353 coins	1.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 125	$232 332 coins	1.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 77	$151 215 coins	1.7%	2	1.8	1.08×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 40	$148 211 coins	3.3%	7	3.6	1.97×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 33	$134 192 coins	3.6%	5	4.3	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$109 155 coins	4.8%	5	7.1	0.70×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$82.60 118 coins	2.9%	8	5.7	1.41×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	17.7%	$80.50 115 coins	12.6%	28	25.1	1.12×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 13	$66.92 95.6 coins	4.8%	12	11.4	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 17	$65.72 93.89 coins	3.5%	7	8.5	0.82×
Sticker \| Luminosity Gaming (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exotic	20.0%	$64.97 92.82 coins	11.5%	28	28.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	20.0%	$48.33 69.05 coins	8.6%	25	28.4	0.88×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$21.53 30.75 coins	0.2%	1	1.4	0.70×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Luminosity Gaming (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exoticLucky Buddha$124177 coins$64.9792.82 coins0.52x18h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertLucky Buddha$124177 coins$80.50115 coins0.65x18h

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertLucky Buddha$124177 coins$48.3369.05 coins0.39x18h

Sticker | Luminosity Gaming (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exoticLucky Buddha$124177 coins$64.9792.82 coins0.52x18h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertLucky Buddha$124177 coins$80.50115 coins0.65x18h

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLucky Buddha$124177 coins$255365 coins2.06x18h

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLucky Buddha$124177 coins$109155 coins0.88x18h

★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covertLucky Buddha$124177 coins$148211 coins1.19x18h

★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$127181 coins$61.7288.17 coins0.49x6d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$127181 coins$67.7996.84 coins0.54x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$124	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$124	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$127	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 4.0%covert 60.9%restricted 10.1%classified 5.0%exotic 20.0%best hit —