Scarred

A case on CSGORoll (csgo, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$27.99

39.99 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $25.45 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.16%

818 openings, odds method

Variance

11.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47 openings · below min

7 days

97.15%±24.35691 openings

30 days

97.16%±22.35818 openings

since tracking started

97.16%±22.35818 openings

54.0%149.8%245.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	47	149.83%±95.2	—	odds
7d	691	97.15%±24.4	+0.5σ	odds
30d	818	97.16%±22.4	+0.5σ	odds
All	818	97.16%±22.4	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 818 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$4,617 6,595 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$1,988 2,840 coins	5.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,865 2,665 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,528 2,183 coins	3.0%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$1,000 1,428 coins	3.5%	1	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$648 926 coins	5.1%	3	1.6	1.83×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$592 846 coins	2.3%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 400	$568 812 coins	5.6%	2	2.0	0.98×
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$404 577 coins	7.9%	7	4.1	1.71×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$286 409 coins	3.4%	5	2.5	2.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$198 283 coins	2.7%	1	2.9	0.35×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 182	$169 242 coins	3.7%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 129	$103 147 coins	3.1%	7	6.3	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$60.39 86.27 coins	1.8%	9	6.1	1.47×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$57.77 82.53 coins	2.3%	11	8.2	1.34×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 50	$42.11 60.15 coins	3.3%	13	16.4	0.79×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$38.21 54.58 coins	1.5%	13	8.2	1.59×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$27.48 39.26 coins	7.6%	60	57.3	1.05×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$26.36 37.66 coins	5.2%	34	40.9	0.83×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	30.0%	$18.65 26.64 coins	22.0%	245	245.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.0%	$5.12 7.32 coins	4.0%	155	163.6	0.95×
SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$4.44 6.35 coins	5.2%	248	245.4	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertP21=)$28.3640.51 coins$1,4772,110 coins52.09x4d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertDunlap$27.9939.99 coins$1,0001,428 coins35.71x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$28.3640.51 coins$578825 coins20.37x8d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$27.9939.99 coins$568812 coins20.31x6h

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$28.3640.51 coins$519741 coins18.29x4d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$28.3640.51 coins$519741 coins18.29x5d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$28.3640.51 coins$519741 coins18.29x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$27.9939.99 coins$4.446.35 coins0.16x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedShiba inu$27.9939.99 coins$5.127.32 coins0.18x1h

Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$27.9939.99 coins$18.6526.64 coins0.67x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$27.9939.99 coins$5.127.32 coins0.18x1h

USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$27.9939.99 coins$27.4839.26 coins0.98x1h

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryShiba inu$27.9939.99 coins$26.3637.66 coins0.94x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$27.9939.99 coins$5.127.32 coins0.18x1h

Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$27.9939.99 coins$18.6526.64 coins0.67x1h

Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedShiba inu$27.9939.99 coins$18.6526.64 coins0.67x1h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLajjan$27.9939.99 coins$5.127.32 coins0.18x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$27.99	90.90%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$28.51	90.91%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$28.36	90.91%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 11.8%classified 20.6%extraordinary 7.1%restricted 30.5%consumer 30.0%best hit $1,477 (52.09x)