Sneaky Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.54
29.34 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $18.67 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.79%
1,332 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,332 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $20.54 | 90.89% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $20.54 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $20.54 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.66 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $20.93 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.92 | 90.92% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.6%classified 26.0%restricted 20.0%mil spec 20.0%Uncommon 10.0%industrial 15.4%best hit —