Split Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.42
26.32 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $16.75 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.03%
1,224 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,224 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifieddinmor$18.4226.32 coins$1.031.47 coins0.06x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$18.4226.32 coins$0.680.97 coins0.04x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$18.4226.32 coins$0.680.97 coins0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $18.42 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.42 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.28 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $18.06 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.06 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 13.2%covert 8.9%classified 21.0%restricted 24.9%industrial 27.4%#777777 3.0%Mythical 1.6%best hit —