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A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.25

3.22 coins

Advertised RTP

90.87%

EV $2.05 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.82%

37.3K openings, odds method

Variance

76.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.40%±25.214,612 openings

7 days

85.11%±9.4831.2K openings

30 days

85.82%±8.6437.3K openings

since tracking started

85.82%±8.6437.3K openings

53.5%79.5%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,612	79.40%±25.2	−0.9σ	odds
7d	31.2K	85.11%±9.48	−1.2σ	odds
30d	37.3K	85.82%±8.64	−1.1σ	odds
All	37.3K	85.82%±8.64	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$4,263 6,090 coins	2.1%	0	0.4	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$1,844 2,635 coins	4.5%	1	1.9	0.53×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$234 335 coins	1.6%	5	5.2	0.96×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$79.10 113 coins	1.2%	13	11.2	1.16×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$64.81 92.59 coins	6.3%	71	74.8	0.95×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 250	$34.17 48.82 coins	6.7%	147	149.6	0.98×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$29.83 42.62 coins	7.3%	160	186.9	0.86×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 154	$27.53 39.33 coins	8.7%	245	243.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 125	$20.34 29.06 coins	7.9%	289	299.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 105	$13.52 19.31 coins	6.3%	374	355.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$7.06 10.08 coins	11.9%	1,252	1289.9	0.97×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.05 4.36 coins	7.5%	1,923	1869.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$1.85 2.65 coins	9.1%	3,778	3738.8	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	18.0%	$1.27 1.82 coins	11.2%	6,556	6729.8	0.97×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	19.0%	$0.49 0.7 coins	4.5%	7,161	7103.7	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	20.0%	$0.18 0.26 coins	1.8%	7,514	7477.6	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	21.0%	$0.15 0.21 coins	1.5%	7,899	7851.5	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$2.253.22 coins$1,8442,635 coins818.3x1d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.253.22 coins$234335 coins104.0x1d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.273.24 coins$223319 coins98.46x3d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.273.24 coins$223319 coins98.46x4d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified$2.273.24 coins$223319 coins98.46x5d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMR.Saul Goodman$2.273.24 coins$223319 coins98.46x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Morris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$2.253.22 coins$0.150.21 coins0.07x3m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common$2.253.22 coins$0.180.26 coins0.08x3m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalTerroristi$2.253.22 coins$1.271.82 coins0.57x3m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$2.253.22 coins$7.0610.08 coins3.13x3m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$2.253.22 coins$1.271.82 coins0.57x5m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$2.253.22 coins$7.0610.08 coins3.13x5m

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedsi^b^rO$2.253.22 coins$13.5219.31 coins6.00x5m

Sawed-Off | Morris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specsi^b^rO$2.253.22 coins$0.150.21 coins0.07x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 02:02 UTC	$2.25	90.87%	17
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$2.25	90.89%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$2.25	90.83%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$2.28	90.78%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.27	90.88%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%classified 5.6%restricted 6.2%mil spec 50.0%Mythical 18.0%common 20.0%best hit $1,844 (818.3x)