Sunrise
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.36
40.51 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $25.78 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.11%
405 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 405 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New)weapon · consumerMiltsukkaaaw :3$28.3640.51 coins$5.107.28 coins0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.36 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.85 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.75 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.0%classified 24.0%industrial 9.0%restricted 17.0%mil spec 24.0%consumer 15.0%best hit —