Superstition
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.87
8.38 coins
Advertised RTP
90.96%
EV $5.34 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.34%
11.9K openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil specJarza$5.878.38 coins$7.2610.37 coins1.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.87 | 90.96% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.48 | 90.86% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.48 | 90.87% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%covert 0.2%mil spec 5.6%classified 5.0%high 24.9%industrial 28.2%Mil Spec 6.1%restricted 30.0%best hit —