The Black Pearl
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.41
37.73 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $24.01 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.48%
5,861 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,865 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$26.0137.15 coins$7,00010,000 coins269.2x
★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJhon csgoroll.com$26.4137.73 coins$561801 coins21.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialg l a s s p i n n e n$26.4137.73 coins$21.6130.87 coins0.82x
Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialShiba inu$26.4137.73 coins$21.6130.87 coins0.82x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.41 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.17 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.01 | 90.92% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%industrial 90.0%best hit $7,000 (269.2x)